Exponentials numb us. Each new number seems to lose all meaning. For reference, 2 weeks ago we were at ~200,000 reported cases and ~7000 recorded deaths in total. Tomorrow we will cross 1 million cases and 50,000 deaths. New York alone has more reported cases than all of China (whatever you think of the accuracy of China's numbers, would you have expected this?). All these numbers are underestimates even now.
Huge uncertainties remain and most projections for how this will play out are really, really hard to constrain (as in, come up with trustworthy upper & lower limits). The uncertainty seems largely to be because the data going into the models has lots of problems (governments are not prioritising this). The models themselves have weaknesses, but my sense is that this is a smaller issue right now. So please be sceptical of articles written by non-experts who seem to think that their machine learning, economics, or tech background means that they have special insight into the mathematics of disease. Nothing wrong with those fields, but I've communicated with some of these people and understand the models they are touting; most are staggeringly inferior in this situation to even the simpler epidemiological models being used by the experts.
A lot of the uncertainty appears to be in constraining the upper limits. Just 2-3 weeks ago it seemed like it might be possible - if we were very lucky about several things, and competent - to limit deaths to the low tens of thousands. Now, hundreds of thousands is being relatively optimistic. It's very hard to grapple with the possibility of millions to tens of millions of deaths, but that's within the range of possibilities. Countries like India have not yet got going; much will depend on how successful they are in avoiding an outbreak.
The massive potential losses mean that we have to err on the side of being careful for longer, though the economic destruction will be huge and the decision of when to ease up on lockdowns will be a very hard and acrimonious one.
Right now, doctors everywhere, including friends of mine, are making their own protective equipment to use when treating patients, because our societies are so unprepared. So please, however stir-crazy you might be: stay home. Getting fresh air is great, but for now it is a luxury we cannot afford in many places.
[Update much later: the argument at the end against getting fresh air was wrong. Outdoor activity is very safe as long as not surrounded by crowds]
Huge uncertainties remain and most projections for how this will play out are really, really hard to constrain (as in, come up with trustworthy upper & lower limits). The uncertainty seems largely to be because the data going into the models has lots of problems (governments are not prioritising this). The models themselves have weaknesses, but my sense is that this is a smaller issue right now. So please be sceptical of articles written by non-experts who seem to think that their machine learning, economics, or tech background means that they have special insight into the mathematics of disease. Nothing wrong with those fields, but I've communicated with some of these people and understand the models they are touting; most are staggeringly inferior in this situation to even the simpler epidemiological models being used by the experts.
A lot of the uncertainty appears to be in constraining the upper limits. Just 2-3 weeks ago it seemed like it might be possible - if we were very lucky about several things, and competent - to limit deaths to the low tens of thousands. Now, hundreds of thousands is being relatively optimistic. It's very hard to grapple with the possibility of millions to tens of millions of deaths, but that's within the range of possibilities. Countries like India have not yet got going; much will depend on how successful they are in avoiding an outbreak.
The massive potential losses mean that we have to err on the side of being careful for longer, though the economic destruction will be huge and the decision of when to ease up on lockdowns will be a very hard and acrimonious one.
Right now, doctors everywhere, including friends of mine, are making their own protective equipment to use when treating patients, because our societies are so unprepared. So please, however stir-crazy you might be: stay home. Getting fresh air is great, but for now it is a luxury we cannot afford in many places.
[Update much later: the argument at the end against getting fresh air was wrong. Outdoor activity is very safe as long as not surrounded by crowds]
